Group of 20 member countries or so called G20 will held its meeting by the end of this year. Indonesia as one of the member countries in G20 is the host for this annual summit that will be located in Bali. The government of Indonesia has declared the theme for this year’s meeting ‘Recover Together, Recover Stronger’, which focusing on world economic recovery, emphasizing on digital economy, and integrated global health system amid post-pandemic. There was no controversy amid the decision as it was made during the time when the world politics dealt with the phenomenon of COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic period. Within the past few months to present, however, the major West players including the United States and other partners turn its focus on the Russia-Ukraine armed conflict. The foreign policy of these countries often to secure Ukraine, which results to use such economic sanctions as their foreign policy tool in achieving their national interests. Not only in the international sphere, the coming G20 meeting this year also become another victim of the ongoing turmoil in Eastern Europe. There are currently two issues pertaining to G20, which are 1) the relevancy of the theme and 2) the participants of G20 summit. In this short article, the concept of national interests is applied in explaining the two issues.
Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi released the statement pertaining to the theme that Indonesia will bring for the coming summit on December 1st 2021 to November 30th 2022 as stated, “Ini untuk pertama kalinya Indonesia memegang Presidensi G20 sejak G20 didirikan. Presidensi Indonesia akan mengambil tema ‘Recover Together, Recover Stronger’” on Tuesday 14th September 2021, Jakarta. The theme that the Indonesian government arranged symbolizes the national interests of Indonesia, and possibly also the other members of G20 in the time of its establishment during previous year.
The issue behind the theme is the national interests of Indonesia itself. As both domestic and systemic factors play such significant role in influencing national interests, the current situation in international politics that drastically changed might also change the Indonesia’s national interests. During the time when the Indonesian government arranged the G20 theme, the global was focusing on post-pandemic recovery. By early this year, however, the international arena shifted into a different phenomenon. Ever since the international armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, many countries including Indonesia are affected heavily with sudden high price on some commodities. As Ukraine unable to export its products, Russia also is heavily sanctioned economically by big countries including the United States, which results the rising price of crude oil and hardening the transactions between Russia and other countries. Indonesian’s Finance Minister Sri Mulyani just recently stated “Dulu Covid-19, kini ancamannya ketahanan pangan” as she referred to her concern on the current rising price of commodities.
This should clearly shows how the national interests of Indonesia changed in the time being. Therefore, how far do the theme that the Indonesian government will bring for the coming G20 is still relevant? It is still relevant, on one hand as the proposal could be used not only for Covid-19 phenomenon particularly but for other global health issues in the future. By having such an integrated system, any global health issues might affect lesser severe than previously. Another relevancy of the current theme is how the coming summit could bring non-traditional security issue to rise again. Rather than rising traditional security issues which will cause more harm, rising non-traditional security issues theoretically are lesser harmful alternatives.
On the other hand, perhaps the theme does not exactly relevant as it does not seem to follow the roller coaster of the domestic and systemic issues. The current concern in Indonesia and other member countries of G20 clearly pointing on commodities more than the health related. As if the summit do not change its tentative, the summit perhaps only mean as a symbol of so called meeting but less likely to impact the world economy as the summit do not touch the crucial issue of the time being. Thus, there is no guarantee that the dispute will slow down within short time and the world politics will return to stable again. In the rule of chess, once it starts, the game will keep going until the very last either draw or win/lose. However, how big is the chance for Indonesia to change the paradigm?
Another issue pertaining to the upcoming summit is the participants of the meeting. The bilateral relationship between United States and Russia becomes worst amid to the Russia’s response on Ukraine this year. As both superpowers are members of G20, the turmoil causes the United States to threat the host not to join the upcoming summit if the host allows Russia to join the summit. This phenomenon brings Indonesia in such a dilemma in producing their decision as a host.
Why the Indonesian government is in dilemma? The country has national interests on both countries at the present that still need to be preserved. Such a wrong foreign policy might affect its healthy relationship with both countries. Indonesia’s military remains actively close with the United States’ military and its alliances in developing the country’s armies and its assets. Thus, Indonesia will host the upcoming joint military exercise Garuda Shield 2022 from 1st to 14th August 2022 with the United States and other 14 participating countries. The United States at the same time also look Indonesia as one of the vital military alliances in balancing the China’s power influence in Indo-Pacific region. Whereas on the other side Indonesia also shows their sign that its bilateral relationship with Russia also need to take seriously. In the time of Russia-Ukraine’s armed conflict, PT Pertamina looks for an alternative in buying crude oil from Russia due to the rising price of crude oil which exceeding 100 USD per barrel due to the sanctions and the Russian government shows such a positive reaction with the possible decision. With both countries remain important for Indonesia, it is such a difficult situation for Indonesia if only to be on the side of either one.
To conclude, this article shows how the two issues of G20 summit at Indonesia rise due to contrary of the country’s national interests. Perhaps the Indonesian government should be able to stand on their interests, and explain to the members of G20 about their concern and optimistically convince the importance of all members’ involvement in succeeding the summit. Hence, any decision made by both United States and Russia will be not under the fault of Indonesia but more likely to every member’s own decision as the country has shown its dedication in maintaining on inviting both nations. Perhaps the concern of Indonesia and threats given by both United States and Russia are likely because the country has yet to set its clear determination, providing a space for maneuver.
Written by,
Hanif A. Siswanto
